Where's the cash rate needle sitting?
The Reserve Bank board meets in six days. Every major bank has now swung behind a hike — here's where the consensus sits, and what it means for a mortgage.
Every major bank — ANZ included — expects the same 25bp move to 4.60% on Tuesday. Where they differ is what happens next: ANZ is the only one forecasting a second hike in November.
Market Watch
Why the consensus flipped
Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ all now expect a 25 basis point rise to 4.60% at the 28–29 September meeting — a sharp shift after Brent crude pushed above US$100 a barrel on Middle East supply disruption, July CPI and Q2 GDP both printed stronger than the RBA expected, and Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary committee that "some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising."
CBA Economics, in a note to brokers this week, called it a near-unanimous decision with hawkish language to follow — but flagged the case to hold is "not one sided": the economy is slowing, the labour market is closer to balance, and home prices are already falling under a large downturn.
Independent Voices
Beyond the big four
Independent economists, research houses and academics broadly agree with the banks on direction — though not always on how far, or what it costs the economy.
Reinstated her forecast for one final RBA hike after stronger inflation data, calling the decision "finely balanced." National dwelling prices fell 0.9% in August — a fifth straight monthly decline — and William Buck now expects prices to fall 5% for 2026 overall, with rate cuts from mid-2027.
Put the odds of a September move at 70% versus November, noting three hikes this year are already "starting to slow" housing, consumer sentiment and business conditions — "just not slow enough yet for the RBA." AMP sees the cash rate peaking at 4.60%, with cuts possible in the second half of 2027.
Told The Australian the RBA "will probably hike rates again before long, perhaps as soon as this month" — an independent read that lined up with the shift in bond markets weeks before the banks moved.
Argues inflation expectations remain broadly anchored, and it would likely take clearly negative economic news — not just a sticky quarterly print — to shift the RBA back toward cutting in 2026.
The most bearish voice in the mix: with sentiment already this negative, a September hike — and especially a follow-up in November — is, in his view, "very likely" to tip the economy into recession.
Your Repayments
The impact — what a move does to repayments
Monthly principal & interest repayment on a 30-year loan, shown against a representative variable rate — adjust it below to match a real scenario.
| Loan amount | −0.50% | −0.25% | At current rate | +0.25% | +0.50% |
|---|
Table amounts and shading update automatically if you change the current rate or term above. Your custom loan amount is highlighted as its own row.
Reality Check
Does a pay rise actually keep up?
A rate rise doesn't just cost more per month — it changes how much of every dollar in repayments goes to interest versus paying down the loan. This works out the pay rise needed to cover that extra interest over the next 12 months, properly accounting for the fact that the balance keeps shrinking either way.
Next Steps
Things to consider
- 01
Negotiate with your bank first
Existing customers are often quietly paying more than new customers get offered. A broker can do this on your behalf — the call alone can be the cheapest rate cut available.
Speak to a broker - 02
Get a full loan review
Not just the rate — the structure, offset usage, fixed/variable split and whether refinancing costs are worth it given where the cycle is headed.
Speak to a broker - 03
Check where the money's actually going
Run your real numbers through a budgeting tool before assuming a rate rise is unaffordable — often it's something else that's moved.
Try the budget analyser - 04
Look honestly at income, not just rates
If wage growth (3.2%) is already trailing inflation (3.5–3.6%), a rate rise on top is a real cut in what's left over — worth knowing before it shows up as missed repayments.
Sources: RBA cash rate target & board meeting schedule (rba.gov.au); CBA Global Economic and Markets Research, "RBA to hike in September, risk sits with still higher rates" (21 Sep 2026); NAB Economics, "Monetary Policy Update" (27 Aug 2026); Westpac and ANZ economics teams via Aussie, Canstar and Mortgage Professional Australia reporting (Sep 2026); William Buck, "Housing downturn deepens as weakness spreads" (Besa Deda, 1 Sep 2026); AMP economic commentary (My Bui, Livewire Markets, Sep 2026); Capital Economics via The Australian; Prof. James Morley, University of Sydney, via Finder economist survey; Alan Kohler via The Nightly. ABS Wage Price Index, June quarter 2026 (released 19 Aug 2026); ABS Consumer Price Index, July 2026 (released 26 Aug 2026). Repayment and salary calculations are simplified estimates for illustration only, use standard principal & interest amortisation, and are not financial advice — actual lender rates, fees and eligibility vary. Compiled 23 September 2026; forecasts can and do change before the decision.